Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di ET, conseguenze sul mezzo e sul mercato

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kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » lun 18 mar 2019, 08:51:25

Da flight International in mio possesso

At first it was only China and a few smaller carriers who grounded their Boeing 737 Max fleets in the response to the 10 March crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 in which 157 people were killed.

While Chinese carriers had a combined fleet of 97 aircraft, that could still, just, be ignored - put it down to politics, maybe - but then over the coming days, a steady drip became a trickle, which became a torrent, as regulators across the globe ordered the 737 Max grounded.

When the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) finally acted on 12 March - a number of its national constituents already having moved unilaterally to ground the Max - followed by its Canadian counterpart early the next day, that left just the US regulator as a hold-out.

In fact, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had rejected action for three days, but eventually fell into line on 13 March, when President Donald Trump announced the USA would order both current in-service Max variants - the 737-8 and -9 - removed from operations.

"Those planes are grounded effective immediately," Trump said. "The safety of the American people, of all people, is our paramount concern."

In the days preceding the presidential intervention, the FAA had repeatedly issued statements stressing that it lacked sufficient evidence to ground the Boeing narrowbody.

But at the forefront of everyone's minds were the possible links to the loss of a Lion Air-operated 737-8 on 29 October last year, flight JT610,which killed all 189 passengers and crew on board.

The occurrence of two fatal accidents involving newly delivered aircraft just five months apart is virtually unprecedented in the modern era.

In the case of the Lion Air crash, Indonesian investigators believe erroneous angle-of-attack data triggered the Max's Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) - a piece of software designed to bring the aircraft's nose down if it appears to be approaching a stall.

The Lion Air crew battled unsuccessfully to regain control of the Max as its horizontal stabilisers repeatedly trimmed the nose down.

MCAS was introduced on the Max to counter a nose-high tendency caused by tweaks to the configuration over previous-generation 737s that in certain conditions created a greater risk of stalling.

Boeing, even while recommending the "temporary suspension of operations" of the Max out of "an abundance of caution and in order to reassure the flying public of the aircraft's safety", maintains that the type is safe.

It had previously noted that the circumstances surrounding the Ethiopian crash remain uncertain, and that pilots, by following established cockpit procedures, can easily disable the MCAS software suspected of playing a role in the Lion Air crash.

But while stopping short of directly linking the two accidents, the FAA, when announcing that the 737-8 and -9 were being removed from service, pointed to new evidence informing its decision.

"The investigation of the ET302 crash developed new information from the wreckage concerning the aircraft's configuration just after take-off that, taken together with newly refined data from satellite-based tracking of the aircraft's flightpath, indicates some similarities between ET302 and JT610," the FAA's grounding order states.

The new details "warrant further investigation of the possibility of a shared caused for the two incidents that needs to be better understood and addressed," it adds.

Boeing recently disclosed it is working on an "enhancement" to the MCAS software, and the FAA says it intends to mandate such improvements in an airworthiness directive issued by April. Roll-out of the upgrades was reportedly delayed by the US government shutdown in late 2018 and early 2019.

The piecemeal approach and lack of consensus over the grounding has prompted a welter of opinions on the handling of the situation, some touching on long-standing concerns related to pilot training and advanced cockpit technology.

President Trump, of course, has a view, tweeting on 12 March that "airplanes are becoming far too complex to fly".

Depending on which side of the fence you sit, the FAA's days of inaction are either the agency kowtowing to Boeing's influence, or the right approach, while the rest of the world acted prematurely.

US pilots have deemed the 737 Max safe to fly, thanks to second-to-none pilot training and additional warning sensors.

The Allied Pilots Association, while faulting Boeing for not disclosing the existence of the system until after the Lion Air crash, has said its pilots are adequately prepared to deal with in-flight MCAS issues.

"We know we have the skill-set and knowledge to combat" MCAS problems, says Dennis Tajer, communications chair at the union, which represents pilots at American Airlines. "We are ready and we are prepared."

"The investigation of the [Ethiopian flight] ET302 crash developed new information from the wreckage concerning the aircraft's configuration just after take-off that, taken together with newly refined data from satellite-based tracking of the aircraft's flightpath, indicates some similarities between ET302 and [Lion Air flight] JT610" US Federal Aviation Administration

Despite the deluge of negative publicity, few details of the fatal Ethiopian crash have emerged.

Flight ET302 departed Addis Ababa at 08:38 local time, heading for Nairobi; it came down 6min later near Bishoftu, around 25 miles (40km) southeast of the capital.

According to the airline's chief executive Tewolde Gebremarium, the 737-8's captain had requested a return having experienced problems after take-off.

In addition, "maintenance checks did not reveal any problems", says Gebremarium. The jet (ET-AVJ) was delivered on 15 November 2018 and had since accumulated around 1,200h.

Ethiopia is controlling the investigation, and information has so far trickled out at a pace slower than typical, says aviation safety consultant and former National Transportation Safety Board member John Goglia.

Investigators retrieved the aircraft's flight-data and cockpit-voice recorders within one day of the crash, but analysis was not scheduled to begin until 15 March, by France's BEA accident investigation body.

"Why are we taking so long to read the recorders?" Goglia says.

The worldwide grounding now heightens pressure on Boeing to convince regulators the aircraft is safe. It also raises real questions about Boeing's plan to boost 737 Max production.

At present, the manufacturer is continuing to build new 737 Max jets, although it has suspended deliveries.

But, perhaps to Boeing's gain, the FAA's order does allow the agency to grant "special flight permits" for purposes including moving aircraft for storage and performing flight testing.

Regardless, Boeing's plan to boost 737 output this year to 57 from 52 aircraft monthly faces new challenges.

The 737 Max represents perhaps the largest chunk of Boeing's future, and the company, locked in a narrowbody race with Airbus, has in the last year worked feverously to get more and more 737s out of the door.

A prolonged grounding could eventually cause a back-up of aircraft at Boeing's facilities, potentially leading the company to suspend 737 production, says Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with Teal Group.

But, he thinks the airframer has the financial strength to weather the storm, and he doubts the grounding will affect the 737 programme's commercial success, noting Boeing's thousands-strong order backlog and a seemingly unceasing demand for narrowbodies.

"This is why only very big companies build jetliners," he says.

For now, the impact on the world's airlines remains modest, due largely to the relatively small size of the 737 Max fleet.

The US Max operators - American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines - have 72 examples combined, about 3% of those carriers' total 2,400 aircraft, according to Cirium's Fleets Analyzer.

"Given the size of the American, United and Southwest fleets, we expect those companies to have little issues adjusting schedules and backfilling aircraft with 737-800s," says a 12 March analysis from investment bank Cowen.

Other carriers face greater levels of disruption: WestJet's 13 737 Max, for instance, represent about 10% of its fleet. Norwegian's inventory of 18 737-8s is 14% of its 128-strong narrowbody fleet, and the budget carrier was operating several transatlantic services with the type. It has indicated that it expects compensation from Boeing over the issue.

Another 54 airlines worldwide operate 737 Max, but most of those have fewer than a dozen of the type, Fleets Analyzer data shows.



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mxp98
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda mxp98 » mar 19 mar 2019, 23:47:11

I tempi come prevedibile sono destinati ad allungarsi.

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/19_mar ... acbc.shtml
Marco
The engine is the heart of an airplane but the pilot is its soul.

easyMXP
Messaggi: 5620
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda easyMXP » mer 20 mar 2019, 00:59:23

Scontato, probabilmente riprenderanno in mano anche tutta la safety analisys del Max, oltre al solo MCAS.
E penso lo farà anche Boeing di suo, non possono permettersi un terzo schianto per colpa dell'aereo per un qualunque motivo dopo la ripresa dei voli.

kco
Messaggi: 5426
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » mer 20 mar 2019, 21:39:11

Altra puntata da Flight International https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... f209661578

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kco
Messaggi: 5426
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » ven 22 mar 2019, 08:43:51

Garuda non l'ha presa bene
https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/11 ... 17984?s=19

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milmxp
Messaggi: 2691
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda milmxp » ven 22 mar 2019, 09:34:15

kco ha scritto:Garuda non l'ha presa bene
https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/11 ... 17984?s=19

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Direi, dopo che in tutto il mondo l'aviazione indonesiana è stata messa in cattiva luce... Non mi aspettavo nulla di diverso. Sono curioso di vedere se lo stesso fenomeno a catena del grounding si ripeterà anche per le cancellazioni degli ordini...

kco
Messaggi: 5426
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » ven 22 mar 2019, 09:49:35

Non che Airbus abbia tanto margine di consegnare più aerei...

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kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » ven 22 mar 2019, 09:53:47

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... f209752520

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romaneeconti
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda romaneeconti » ven 22 mar 2019, 09:56:01

kco ha scritto:Non che Airbus abbia tanto margine di consegnare più aerei...

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Esatto. finira' come al solito di fronte al business....tarallucci e vino. Un po' di casino all'inizio e poi tra qaulche mese Boeing ricomincera' a ricevere ordini per ulteriori 7M8 alle varie Compagnie. C'est la vie....

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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda malpensante » mer 27 mar 2019, 09:19:20


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belumosi
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda belumosi » mer 27 mar 2019, 22:50:49

​Boeing unveils 737 Max software changes as grounding continues

Boeing has disclosed details of a software update to its 737 Max that the company says eliminates the chance erroneous data can cause onboard computers to place the aircraft into a dive.
The company has already developed the software and tested it inflight, and is now working to achieve certification of the changes from federal authorities, Boeing officials say in Renton on 27 March.
"This combination of things will eliminate the chance of erroneous data ever causing MCAS activation," says a Boeing official who declined to be identified.
The manoeuvring characteristics augmentation system (MCAS) played a role in at least one of two recent 737 Max 8 crashes — incidents that have shown similarities and that prompted a global 737 Max grounding.
Company officials frame the MCAS modifications as improvements to an already safe system, saying the updates do not represent any concession by Boeing that the 737 Max was unsafe to begin with.
Boeing has put the upgraded MCAS system "through hundreds of hours of analysis, laboratory testing, verification in a simulator and two test flights, including an in-flight certification test with Federal Aviation Administration representatives on board as observers", the company says.
Boeing declines to speculate a timeline by which the changes might be certified, which would allow the grounding to be lifted.
Company officials described three notable MCAS tweaks.
First, the upgraded MCAS operates based on data from both of the 737 Max's two angle-of-attack (AOA) sensors. It will collect data from both sensors all the time, and compare inputs from both, Boeing says.
"If those inputs vary by more than 5.5°, the system will inhibit MCAS and the entire speed trim function for the remainder of the flight," a Boeing official says. "That first level of protection… will keep MCAS from ever firing in the case of a single angle-of-attack" error, he adds
The current system relies on only one sensor at a time, though it alternates between the left- and right-side sensors.
Second, the upgrade will allow MCAS to activate – meaning to drop the aircraft's nose – only once for each time it registers an unusually high angle of attack, Boeing says.
The system will then reset and will engage again only if the aircraft enters another "elevated angle of attack situation", the official says.
"However, if for some reason an angle-of-attack vain gets stuck in a high position, the system will detect the inconsistency between the two inputs and it would not operate a second time," adds the official. "There are no known or envisioned failure conditions where MCAS would provide multiple inputs."
Finally, the company has tweaked MCAS so that it cannot command nose-down stabiliser movement to a degree to which a pilot pulling back on the control column cannot overcome, the company says.
"The control column will always be able to override MCAS input with sufficient manoeuvring ability that the aircraft can still climb," the official says.
Boeing has also updated computer-based "differences" training for pilots transferring from flying the 737NG to the 737 Max.
The course, though not yet approved, "is designed to provide 737-type-rated pilots with an enhanced understanding of the 737 Max speed trim system, including the MCAS function, associated existing crew procedures and related software changes", Boeing says.
The MCAS updates follow the October 2018 crash of a Lion Air737 Max and the March crash of an Ethiopian Airlines aircraft of the same type. The pilots of the Lion Air crash fought against MCAS, which repeatedly pushed the aircraft's nose down, possibly due to erroneous angle-of-attack data, according to investigators.
Boeing has insisted pilots can disable MCAS by following existing cockpit procedures.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... in-456952/

kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » ven 29 mar 2019, 17:55:57

Da copia di flight international in mio possesso

Boeing has disclosed details of a software update to its 737 Max that the company says eliminates the chance erroneous data can cause onboard computers to place the aircraft into a dive.

The company has already developed the software and tested it in flight, and is now working to achieve certification of the changes from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Boeing officials said in Renton on 27 March.

"This combination of things will eliminate the chance of erroneous data ever causing MCAS activation," says Boeing.

The Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) played a role in at least one of two fatal 737 Max 8 crashes - and strong similarities between them prompted regulators worldwide to ground the Max fleet.

Boeing officials frame the MCAS modifications as improvements to an already safe system, saying the updates do not represent any concession that the 737 Max was unsafe to begin with.

Boeing has put the upgraded MCAS system "through hundreds of hours of analysis, laboratory testing, verification in a simulator and two test flights, including an in-flight certification test with Federal Aviation Administration representatives on board as observers", the company says.

Boeing declines to speculate on a timeline by when the changes might be certificated, which would allow the grounding to be lifted.

SOFTWARE PATCHED

The airframer has identified three notable tweaks to the MCAS. First, the upgraded system will now draw data from both of the 737 Max's angle-of-attack sensors, constantly comparing the inputs.

"If those inputs vary by more than 5.5°, the system will inhibit MCAS and the entire speed-trim function for the remainder of the flight," Boeing says. "That first level of protection… will keep MCAS from ever firing in the case of a single angle-of-attack" error, it adds.

The current system relies on only one sensor at a time, though it alternates between the left- and right-side inputs.

Second, the upgrade will allow MCAS to activate - meaning to bring the aircraft's nose down - only once for each time it registers an unusually high angle of attack, Boeing says.

The system will then reset and will engage again only if the aircraft enters another "elevated angle-of-attack situation".

"However, if for some reason an angle-of-attack vane gets stuck in a high position, the system will detect the inconsistency between the two inputs and it would not operate a second time," Boeing says. "There are no known or envisioned failure conditions where MCAS would provide multiple inputs."

Finally, the company has tweaked MCAS so it cannot command a nose-down stabiliser movement that cannot be overcome by a pilot pulling back on the yoke.

"The control column will always be able to override MCAS input with sufficient manoeuvring ability that the aircraft can still climb," Boeing says.

UPDATED INSTRUCTIONS

The manufacturer has also updated computer-based "differences" training for pilots converting from flying the 737NG to the 737 Max.

Although not yet approved, the course "is designed to provide 737 type-rated pilots with an enhanced understanding of the 737 Max speed-trim system, including the MCAS function, associated existing crew procedures and related software changes", Boeing says.

MCAS has been under scrutiny since the 29 October 2018 crash of a Lion Air 737-8 that came down shortly after take-off from Jakarta in Indonesia, killing all 189 passengers and crew. In their preliminary report, investigators say the pilots fought against MCAS, which repeatedly pushed the aircraft's nose down, possibly due to erroneous angle-of-attack data.

That was followed by the 10 March loss of an Ethiopian Airlines 737-8, in which all 157 occupants died. Although investigators are yet to release any information on the incident, clear similarities have been identified with the Lion Air event.

Boeing has insisted pilots can disable MCAS by following existing cockpit procedures for a runaway stabiliser.

Although Boeing continues to produce the 737 Max, deliveries have been halted. Bloomberg estimates that the grounding could cost the manufacturer up to $150 million per month, based on compensation for operators and cash tied up in stored inventory.

Most carriers have remained loyal to the Max so far. However, Garuda Indonesia has indicated it is looking to cancel its outstanding commitment for 49 of the type. Those aircraft represent just over 1% of the outstanding global orderbook for the 737 Max family.




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malpensante
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda malpensante » ven 29 mar 2019, 18:18:58

Made in Seattle, finora sui MAX c'era MS MCAS for Windows in beta test.

easyMXP
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda easyMXP » ven 29 mar 2019, 22:59:37

Capisco che ci siano risarcimenti enormi in ballo, ma questo è ridicolo:
Boeing officials frame the MCAS modifications as improvements to an already safe system, saying the updates do not represent any concession that the 737 Max was unsafe to begin with.
Quasi al pari di avere due sensori ma usarne una alla volta, alternativamente.

kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » mar 02 apr 2019, 07:43:49


kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » mer 03 apr 2019, 14:46:53

MCAS sempre più sospettato

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true

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easyMXP
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda easyMXP » mer 03 apr 2019, 18:08:12

kco ha scritto:MCAS sempre più sospettato

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true

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A me sembra piuttosto che qualche domanda sull'addestramento dei piloti qualcuno inizi a porsela.

kco
Messaggi: 5426
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » gio 04 apr 2019, 10:55:47

Update: Preliminary report into the Ethiopian Airlines #ET302 crash has found the crew followed the recommended and approved emergency procedures — but were still not able to control the #737MAX. https://t.co/NhtgakRWgz

Copio un tweet di Alex Macheras, giornalista aeronautico

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kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » gio 04 apr 2019, 10:57:26

Da flighglobal

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... f210411715

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kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » gio 04 apr 2019, 10:58:22

E anche questo è interessante

https://leehamnews.com/2019/04/03/et302 ... stop-mcas/

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kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » ven 05 apr 2019, 08:31:59

Il solito Seattle times

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ssion=true

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malpensante
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Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda malpensante » ven 05 apr 2019, 08:47:56

Parecchi di Boeing e della FAA si meritano un'iniezione letale.

Leoo
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda Leoo » ven 05 apr 2019, 09:05:00


kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » ven 05 apr 2019, 17:38:22


kco
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Re: Precipitato un B737 Max 8 di Ethiopian

Messaggio da leggereda kco » ven 05 apr 2019, 22:11:22

Da copia di flight international in mio possesso:

Preliminary findings from the Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 Max 8 crash inquiry reveal that the crew was unable to control the aircraft despite repeatedly performing required recovery procedures.

The Ethiopian transport ministry has released initial recommendations in the wake of the 10 March crash, which occurred as the aircraft departed Addis Ababa for Nairobi as flight ET302.

It stated, during a briefing on the findings, that the aircraft had a valid airworthiness certificate and that the crew had obtained the licences and qualifications necessary to conduct the flight.

The take-off roll appeared "very normal", the ministry says. But it refers to "uncommanded nose-down conditions" and adds that the crew "repeatedly" performed "all procedures" provided by the manufacturer "but was not able to control the aircraft".

The ministry says it is recommending that the aircraft's flight-control system should be "reviewed" by the manufacturer.

It adds that aviation authorities should "verify" that the review of the flight-control system has been "adequately addressed" by the manufacturer before the 737 Max is released for operation.

Ethiopian Airlines says the preliminary report "clearly" shows that the pilot followed Boeing- and US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)-approved procedures to handle the emergency.

"Despite their hard work and full compliance with the emergency procedures, it was very unfortunate that they could not recover the [aircraft] from the persistence of nose-diving," it adds.

"As the investigation continues with more detailed analysis, as usual we will continue with our full co-operation with the investigation team."

Boeing reiterates its sympathies for those affected by the tragedy. It says flight-data recorder information in the preliminary report shows that an "erroneous angle of attack sensor input" activated the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), pushing the aircraft's nose downwards.

"To ensure unintended MCAS activation will not occur again, Boeing has developed and is planning to release a software update to MCAS and an associated comprehensive pilot training and supplementary education program for the 737 Max," it says.

This "adds additional layers of protection and will prevent erroneous data from causing MCAS activation. Flightcrews will always have the ability to override MCAS",it says.

SENATE PROBE

Meanwhile, a US Senate committee has launched a probe related to allegations that inadequate training of FAA safety inspectors caused the agency to improperly evaluate software new to the 737 Max.

In a letter to acting FAA administrator Daniel Elwell, Senator Roger Wicker, chair of the commerce, science and transportation committee, says that evidence suggests the FAA may have known of those training "deficiencies as early as August 2018".

"The committee is led to believe that an FAA investigation into these allegations may have been completed recently," Wicker says.

Wicker's probe responds to allegations from "whistleblowers" and comes amid several high-level inquiries into the FAA's certification of the now-grounded 737 Max.

"Allegations from these whistleblowers include information that numerous FAA employees, including those involved in the aircraft evaluation group for the Boeing 737 Max, had not received proper training and valid certification," writes Wicker.

"We will take a thorough approach to development and testing of the update to ensure we take the time to get it right" Boeing 

Some of those staff members may have participated on a "flight standardisation board" (FSB), which determined 737 Max pilot training requirements, Wicker writes.

The committee seeks to establish if inadequate inspector training caused "improper evaluation" by the FAA of the MCAS.

The FAA declines to comment specifically about the inquiry, but cites Elwell's recent comments to a Senate hearing where he said the agency "welcomes external review of our systems, processes, and recommendations".

The US regulator has meanwhile played down any imminent return to service for the 737 Max after it revealed that the manufacturer needed additional time to develop a software fix.

"The FAA expects to receive Boeing's final package of its software enhancement in the coming weeks for FAA approval," the agency said on 1 April.

"Time is needed for additional work by Boeing as the result of an ongoing review of the 737 Max flight-control system, to ensure that Boeing has identified and appropriately addressed all pertinent issues."

Once received, the FAA will subject the updated software to "a rigorous safety review", it says.

"The FAA will not approve the software for installation until the agency is satisfied with the submission," it adds.

"We are working to demonstrate that we have identified and appropriately addressed all certification requirements and will be submitting for FAA review once completed in the coming weeks," Boeing says.

"Safety is our first priority, and we will take a thorough and methodical approach to the development and testing of the update to ensure we take the time to get it right."



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