Conseguenze delle tariffe USA e delle scelte dell’Amministrazione Trump
Inviato: lun 07 apr 2025, 15:07:12
As Airlines React To Trump Tariffs, Uncertainty Prevails
Christine Boynton Lori Ranson April 04, 2025
GRAND CAYMAN—As newly imposed tariffs by the Trump administration roil world markets, airlines are bracing for a wave of uncertainty as the busy travel summer season approaches.
The tariffs announced April 2 start at 10%, escalating to 34% for Chinese imports; 20% for European Union goods; Vietnam 46%; Taiwan 32%; India 26%, and Japan 24%.
“I don’t know where it ends, and I think no one does really,” Sun Country CEO Jude Bricker said at CAPA Americas Airline Leader Summit in Grand Cayman. Most airline concern currently centers around whether consumer response squeezes discretionary spending, he explained. “I think that’s probably going to happen,” said Bricker. “I think it’s going to put downward pressure on demand.”
Looking for a silver lining, a recent dip in Canadian travel to the U.S. in response to geopolitical tensions could lower costs in high-demand U.S. leisure markets, the Sun Country CEO suggested, lowering hotel prices in places like Florida, the desert Southwest and Southern California as fewer Canadians book travel to those places.
Still, in projecting impacts to bookings, “I think one less trip to see grandma is probably in the cards,” Bricker concluded. Intra-U.S. travel will likely be okay, he added, describing Sun Country as “selling strongly” through the second quarter, and with summer trends also looking positive.
Las Vegas-based Allegiant Air also remains wary. “I think it’s going to be difficult,” said John Pepper, the company’s VP of Corporate Development and Government Affairs, in considering potential impacts. Stagflation is “maybe the baseline scenario,” he added. “We’re doing a lot of things that are highly inflationary at the same time that we’re also doing some stuff that is going to be recessionary.”
However, Allegiant sees its model of closely managing capacity to demand as giving it some protection.
“I think for businesses like Allegiant [and] Sun Country we’re carefully managing capacity to demand and have flexibility to reduce capacity to match that, and we’re going to do okay. We’re going to do well in this environment, as opposed to airlines that don’t have the flexibility,” Pepper said.
Canadian airlines have been adjusting their capacity since tariff threats by the U.S. emerged earlier this year, and dramatic changes in U.S. trade policy have squeezed transborder demand. Air Canada recently shared that as of mid-March, bookings in the transborder market were down roughly 10% for the next six months.
Toronto-based Porter Airlines has opted to trim some U.S. frequencies and redeploy that capacity into the Canadian domestic market. Canadian ULCC Flair Airlines has also shifted some capacity back onto routes within Canada, the company’s CEO Flair Airlines CEO Maciej Wilk said at the conference.
But Wilk acknowledged simply shifting capacity to the domestic market “doesn’t solve the issue, because everybody’s doing the same.” Data from CAPA-Centre for Aviation show that Flair’s two-way seats from Canada to the U.S. are down roughly 18% year-over-year for the week of March 31, while Air Canada’s have fallen 8.5% and WestJet’s decrease is 5.4%
“The billion-dollar question is whether this is something that will continue for the next three to four years, or emotions will cool down and the summer of 2026 will be more or less back to normal,” Wilk explained.
He points to comments made at the conference that consumer confidence is weakening on both sides of the border, “and we see in that a little bit softer demand” in domestic and international travel. Citing that challenge, Wilk said it’s even more visible in Canada, “[which] faces elections in a couple of weeks.”
He explained Flair was supposed to add a couple of aircraft to its fleet this year, “but ironically, it is good news [that] I actually won’t be adding any aircraft this year.” The Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery database shows Flair has a fleet of 20 aircraft—18 Boeing 737-8s and two 737-800s—all in service.
As the global industry braces from the fallout from tariffs, the dynamics of some markets could create a shield for the short term. Responding to a query about the geopolitical environment, Azul President Abhi Shah explained, “Brazil in some sense is a bit isolated, which is good.” He explained the country has a large domestic market and point of sale is “very Brazil originating.”
Still, larger ramifications from the rapid changes in U.S. trade policy loom large. TD Cowen analyst Thomas Fitzgerald concluded in a first quarter earnings preview for U.S. carriers that “uncertainty regarding global trade policy looks unlikely to abate any time soon and the odds of a recession climb by the day.”
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport ... 9d33d8b77e
Christine Boynton Lori Ranson April 04, 2025
GRAND CAYMAN—As newly imposed tariffs by the Trump administration roil world markets, airlines are bracing for a wave of uncertainty as the busy travel summer season approaches.
The tariffs announced April 2 start at 10%, escalating to 34% for Chinese imports; 20% for European Union goods; Vietnam 46%; Taiwan 32%; India 26%, and Japan 24%.
“I don’t know where it ends, and I think no one does really,” Sun Country CEO Jude Bricker said at CAPA Americas Airline Leader Summit in Grand Cayman. Most airline concern currently centers around whether consumer response squeezes discretionary spending, he explained. “I think that’s probably going to happen,” said Bricker. “I think it’s going to put downward pressure on demand.”
Looking for a silver lining, a recent dip in Canadian travel to the U.S. in response to geopolitical tensions could lower costs in high-demand U.S. leisure markets, the Sun Country CEO suggested, lowering hotel prices in places like Florida, the desert Southwest and Southern California as fewer Canadians book travel to those places.
Still, in projecting impacts to bookings, “I think one less trip to see grandma is probably in the cards,” Bricker concluded. Intra-U.S. travel will likely be okay, he added, describing Sun Country as “selling strongly” through the second quarter, and with summer trends also looking positive.
Las Vegas-based Allegiant Air also remains wary. “I think it’s going to be difficult,” said John Pepper, the company’s VP of Corporate Development and Government Affairs, in considering potential impacts. Stagflation is “maybe the baseline scenario,” he added. “We’re doing a lot of things that are highly inflationary at the same time that we’re also doing some stuff that is going to be recessionary.”
However, Allegiant sees its model of closely managing capacity to demand as giving it some protection.
“I think for businesses like Allegiant [and] Sun Country we’re carefully managing capacity to demand and have flexibility to reduce capacity to match that, and we’re going to do okay. We’re going to do well in this environment, as opposed to airlines that don’t have the flexibility,” Pepper said.
Canadian airlines have been adjusting their capacity since tariff threats by the U.S. emerged earlier this year, and dramatic changes in U.S. trade policy have squeezed transborder demand. Air Canada recently shared that as of mid-March, bookings in the transborder market were down roughly 10% for the next six months.
Toronto-based Porter Airlines has opted to trim some U.S. frequencies and redeploy that capacity into the Canadian domestic market. Canadian ULCC Flair Airlines has also shifted some capacity back onto routes within Canada, the company’s CEO Flair Airlines CEO Maciej Wilk said at the conference.
But Wilk acknowledged simply shifting capacity to the domestic market “doesn’t solve the issue, because everybody’s doing the same.” Data from CAPA-Centre for Aviation show that Flair’s two-way seats from Canada to the U.S. are down roughly 18% year-over-year for the week of March 31, while Air Canada’s have fallen 8.5% and WestJet’s decrease is 5.4%
“The billion-dollar question is whether this is something that will continue for the next three to four years, or emotions will cool down and the summer of 2026 will be more or less back to normal,” Wilk explained.
He points to comments made at the conference that consumer confidence is weakening on both sides of the border, “and we see in that a little bit softer demand” in domestic and international travel. Citing that challenge, Wilk said it’s even more visible in Canada, “[which] faces elections in a couple of weeks.”
He explained Flair was supposed to add a couple of aircraft to its fleet this year, “but ironically, it is good news [that] I actually won’t be adding any aircraft this year.” The Aviation Week Network Fleet Discovery database shows Flair has a fleet of 20 aircraft—18 Boeing 737-8s and two 737-800s—all in service.
As the global industry braces from the fallout from tariffs, the dynamics of some markets could create a shield for the short term. Responding to a query about the geopolitical environment, Azul President Abhi Shah explained, “Brazil in some sense is a bit isolated, which is good.” He explained the country has a large domestic market and point of sale is “very Brazil originating.”
Still, larger ramifications from the rapid changes in U.S. trade policy loom large. TD Cowen analyst Thomas Fitzgerald concluded in a first quarter earnings preview for U.S. carriers that “uncertainty regarding global trade policy looks unlikely to abate any time soon and the odds of a recession climb by the day.”
https://aviationweek.com/air-transport ... 9d33d8b77e
